optionly
  • DashboardWhat matters on Derive right now, on one page
  • Smart moneyThe steadiest traders on Derive and what they are betting on now
  • TradersEvery active wallet ranked by what it made, filtered by size and style
  • CohortsWhales against shrimp, winners against losers: which way each group leans
  • FlowEvery option trade over $50K in the last 24 hours, and which way it leaned
  • OptionsFull chains for every expiry, Derive and Deribit side by side
  • MarketsDerive's volume, open interest and perpetual funding at a glance
  • ArbMispricings across venues, put-call parity breaks and box-spread rates
  • For agentsConnect Claude, Cursor or any MCP client to the same numbers

Track the traders making money on Derive

Smart money (10 wallets whose returns hold up) is net short $10.6M of ETH.

Updated

Derive markets

KoolKrypto bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 2027 $5,000/$7,000 call spreads for $898.2K and explained the trade on X. 200 other wallets now hold the same spread; 170 of them first traded on Derive after the post.

Holders' P&L now
-$2.3M
ETH must rise
+147%
in 134 days to break even
Spread worth
$4.00
KoolKrypto paid $38.22
All 201 holders and their entries
spot 2.0K5.0K7.0K
Profit per spread at expiry, at KoolKrypto's cost
Biggest Derive trade, 24h
$14.7M notional
Bought 200 BTC 75K call, 14 Nov 26 for $79.4K premium · by 0xaf0f…e92e
Smart money, net
Short $10.6M ETH
Combined delta of the 10 smart-money wallets; short $8.9M BTC.
Trade ideas, last 30 days
-19.1% average
Return on cost across 55 ideas; 38% made money.

Smart money

The five making the most over 30 days among the 10 wallets whose 90-day returns hold up (of 37 eligible), with at least 12 weeks of history.

How they are picked

Trade ideas

Fixed rules, not advice. Each card says what to trade, what it costs, and the number that triggered it.

Track record, last 30 days: 55 ideas, -19.1% average on cost, 38% made money

Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.

Max pain
29 ideas · -63.8% · 17% made money
Open-interest wall
13 ideas · +65.1% · 85% made money
Volatility
13 ideas · -3.4% · 38% made money

6 ideas

Smart money crowdingETH

7 smart-money wallets are long the ETH 1.9K put, 13 Nov 26

Buy the ETH 1.9K put, 13 Nov 26 on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 7 of them are on the same side of one contract, net +250.4 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Wallets
7 long
Net
+250.4 contracts
Trigger
≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 7 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

Open-interest wallBTC

BTC has a put wall at 72K for 13 Nov

Sell the 13 Nov 72K put on Derive.

spot 73K72K
Credit
$145 (0.20%)
Max gain
$145
Max loss
unlimited

Why now: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 51 contracts.

The reasoning

$3.71M of open interest sits at 72K (mostly puts), 1.9% below spot, expiring in 0.9 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Breakeven
$71,878
Expiry
13 Nov · 0.9d
Smart money crowdingETH

6 smart-money wallets are short the ETH 2K put, 27 Nov 26

Sell the ETH 2K put, 27 Nov 26 on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 6 of them are on the same side of one contract, net -1,696.1 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Wallets
6 short
Net
-1,696.1 contracts
Trigger
≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 6 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

Open-interest wallHYPE

HYPE has a put wall at 70 for 13 Nov

Sell the 13 Nov 70 put on Derive.

spot 71.4870.00
Credit
$0.31 (0.43%)
Max gain
$0.31
Max loss
unlimited

Why now: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 37,205 contracts.

The reasoning

$2.66M of open interest sits at 70 (mostly puts), 2.1% below spot, expiring in 0.9 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Breakeven
$69.73
Expiry
13 Nov · 0.9d
Open-interest wallETH

ETH has a put wall at 1.9K for 13 Nov

Sell the 13 Nov 1.9K put on Derive.

spot 2.0K1.9K
Credit
$3.2 (0.16%)
Max gain
$3.2
Max loss
unlimited

Why now: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 1,145 contracts.

The reasoning

$2.34M of open interest sits at 1.9K (mostly puts), 4.6% below spot, expiring in 0.9 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Breakeven
$1,947
Expiry
13 Nov · 0.9d
Cross-venueHYPE

The same contract is 12 bps cheaper on Deribit than on Derive

Buy on Deribit at $0.87, sell on Derive at $1.

The HYPE 100 call, 25 Dec 26 is offered at $0.87 on Deribit and bid at $1 on Derive. After both venues' fees that is $0.0868 per contract of locked-in edge.

Edge
$0.0868 (12.1 bps)
Size
50,447 · $4,378
Risk
leg risk

Why now: 12.1 bps of forward after fees (rule fires above 5 bps).

Notable trades

The most unusual Derive option trades of the last 24 hours, and why each stands out.

Every large trade
  1. Sold4.5 × 2-leg BTC package

    $369.1K notional
    $9.6K net received
    0xa0b4…e05cvol buyer11× this wallet's usual size
    5 more details
    • 50% win rate · +$277K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
    • 12× this wallet's usual size
    • hit 10% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
    • 2-leg package, net credit
  2. Bought10 BTC 72K put, 14 Nov 26

    $734K notional
    $3.3K premium
    0x7277…0b98premium seller17× this wallet's usual size
    3 more details
    • 28% win rate · +$186K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
    • paid 8% over Deribit mark
  3. Bought10 BTC 72K put, 15 Nov 26

    $734K notional
    $3.8K premium
    0x7277…0b98premium seller17× this wallet's usual size
    2 more details
    • 28% win rate · +$186K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
  4. Sold50 × 4-leg BTC package

    $3.7M notional
    $493.4K net received
    0x3aaa…471bmarket maker182× this wallet's usual size
    2 more details
    • 41% win rate · +$151K this month
    • 4-leg package, net credit
  5. Sold6 × BTC straddle 75K/75K 14 Nov 26

    $1M notional
    $15.4K net received
    0x96e8…142dmarket maker9× this wallet's usual size
    4 more details
    • 55% win rate · +$571K this month
    • 20× this wallet's usual size
    • hit 53% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
    • 2-leg package, net credit

By notional traded in the last 24 hours.

Leaderboard

Go deeper

Each page answers one question.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 12 Nov, 10:03 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every 2 minutes; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page
Sources
Prices, open interest, volatility and trades come from Derive. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner only.
IV vs RV
Implied volatility (IV) is what at-the-money Derive options price in over the next 30 days. Realized volatility (RV) is how much the index actually moved over the last 30 complete days, annualised. IV below 0.85× RV: options cheap. Above 1.25×: expensive.
Smart money
The top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5K and traded in the last two weeks, market makers removed. “Smart long $1M” is their combined net delta in dollars.
Biggest trade
The largest Derive option execution, or same-second sweep, by underlying notional (size × index price) in the last 24 hours. Premium is what was paid for the options. A package leg is not the whole spread.
Max pain, wall
Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders would collect the least. The wall is the strike with the most open contracts within 5% of spot; prices often stick near it into expiry.
Trade ideas
Fixed rules on these numbers, not a person or a model. Payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Not advice.
Notable trades
Ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price against Deribit's mark, and package legs.
Alerts
Aggressor fills over $250K notional in options (with at least $2K premium) or $1M in perps, over $50K by a smart-money wallet, or over $10K by a wallet we follow by hand. Market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.