Track the traders making money on Derive

Smart money (10 wallets whose returns hold up) is net short $7.7M of BTC. Options look expensive on CC, VVV: priced for bigger moves than the market has made.

Updated 8 Nov, 16:38 UTC · checks every 5 min

Derive markets

Price, 24h move, implied vs realized volatility. Open one for its option chain.

12 assets · tap one for its option chain

Trade spotlight

The ETH $5,000–$7,000 call spread

KoolKrypto bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 2027 $5,000/$7,000 call spreads for $898.2K and explained the trade on X. 201 other wallets now hold the same spread; 171 of them first traded on Derive after the post.

Holders' P&L now: -$2.1M
ETH must rise: +125%; in 138 days to break even
Spread worth: $6.80; KoolKrypto paid $38.22

All 202 holders and their entries

Profit per spread at expiry, at KoolKrypto's cost

Biggest Derive trade, 24h

$2.7M notional

Sold 36 BTC 72K put, 13 Nov 26 for $12.7K premium · by 0x1e1f…124b

Smart money, net

Short $7.7M BTC

Combined delta of the 10 smart-money wallets; short $6.5M ETH.

Smart money

The five making the most over 30 days among the 10 wallets whose 90-day returns hold up (of 31 eligible), with at least 12 weeks of history.

How they are picked

Wallet30-day P&L90-day P&LReturn on positionWeeks upWorst dropLast trade

10x010f…7b81vol buyer+$36.8K 30d

90 days: +$36.8K
On position: +4%
Weeks up: 40% of 5
Worst drop: -$16K

Last: Sold 10 HYPE perp, 2 days ago 20xb85e…0700two-way trader+$692.3K 30d

90 days: +$701.8K
On position: +2%
Weeks up: 100% of 5
Worst drop: -$231K

Last: Sold 32 ETH 2.3K call, 9 Nov 26, 8 minutes ago 30xf56b…cfe9two-way trader+$56.2K 30d

90 days: +$59.4K
On position: +1%
Weeks up: 80% of 5
Worst drop: -$17K

Last: Bought 0.1 XAUT 4.8K call, 25 Dec 26, a day ago 40xb1e6…522etwo-way trader+$8.1K 30d

90 days: +$10.3K
On position: +3%
Weeks up: 80% of 5
Worst drop: -$3K

Last: Sold 0.03 XAUT perp, 9 hours ago 50x6b31…d219premium seller+$23K 30d

90 days: +$22.7K
On position: +0%
Weeks up: 80% of 5
Worst drop: -$12K

Last: Bought 0.825 ETH perp, 13 hours ago

Trade ideas

Fixed rules, not advice. Each card says what to trade, what it costs, and the number that triggered it.

5 ideas

VolatilityCC

CC options look expensive: sell a strangle

Sell the 27 Nov 0.08 put and 0.11 call on Derive.

Credit: $0 (3.5%)
Max gain: $0
Max loss: unlimited

Why now: Implied 184% vs realized 78%, ratio 2.36 (rule fires above 1.25).

The reasoning

CC options imply 184% annualised volatility for the next month, but the market has only moved at 78% over the last month (43% over the last week). At 2.36× realized, option sellers are being paid more than recent movement justifies.

Breakeven: $0.08 – $0.11
Expiry: 27 Nov · 19d

CC 27 Nov chain

Smart money crowdingETH

6 smart-money wallets are short the ETH perp

Sell the ETH perp on Derive, in small size.

Wallets: 6 short
Net: -359.2 contracts
Trigger: ≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 6 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

The reasoning

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 6 of them are on the same side of one contract, net -359.2 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Smart money book

Open-interest wallETH

ETH has a call wall at 2.3K for 9 Nov

Sell the 9 Nov 2.3K call on Derive.

Credit: $2.3 (0.10%)
Max gain: $2.3
Max loss: unlimited

Why now: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 749 contracts.

The reasoning

$1.67M of open interest sits at 2.3K (mostly calls), 2.8% above spot, expiring in 0.6 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Breakeven: $2,303
Expiry: 9 Nov · 0.6d

ETH 9 Nov chain

VolatilityVVV

VVV options look expensive: sell a strangle

Sell the 27 Nov 15 put and 27.5 call on Derive.

Credit: $0.54 (2.6%)
Max gain: $0.54
Max loss: unlimited

Why now: Implied 126% vs realized 99%, ratio 1.27 (rule fires above 1.25).

The reasoning

VVV options imply 126% annualised volatility for the next month, but the market has only moved at 99% over the last month (92% over the last week). At 1.27× realized, option sellers are being paid more than recent movement justifies.

Breakeven: $14.46 – $28.04
Expiry: 27 Nov · 19d

VVV 27 Nov chain

Smart money crowdingZEC

6 smart-money wallets are long the ZEC perp

Buy the ZEC perp on Derive, in small size.

Wallets: 6 long
Net: +267.5 contracts
Trigger: ≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 6 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

The reasoning

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 6 of them are on the same side of one contract, net +267.5 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Smart money book

Cross-venue: no cross-venue mispricing worth trading right now. The same option on Derive and Deribit is quoted within fees of each other on every contract we can match, or the gap is under a dollar a contract. That is the normal state; edges appear briefly when one book lags.
Arb scanner

Notable trades

The most unusual Derive option trades of the last 24 hours, and why each stands out.

Every large trade

Sold1,050 × ETH call spread 5K/7K 26 Mar 27
$2.3M notional
$6.2K net received
0x0f6b…37728 Nov, 16:31 UTChit 15% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
2 more details
- first time we have seen this wallet
- 2-leg package, net credit
Sold280 × 3-leg ETH package
$2M notional
$9.4K net received
0x108a…a3c6premium seller8 Nov, 13:09 UTChit 19% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
1 more detail
- 3-leg package, net credit
Bought1,000 × HYPE strangle 85/74 25 Dec 26
$77.2K notional
$8.9K net paid
0xd2da…e97fvol buyer7 Nov, 16:46 UTC5× this wallet's usual size
2 more details
- paid 14% over Deribit mark on the worst leg
- 2-leg package, net debit
Sold115.9 × 2-leg ETH package
$512.5K notional
$1.6K net received
0xb85e…0700two-way trader8 Nov, 13:20 UTC5× this wallet's usual size
3 more details
- 58% win rate · +$692K this month · on the smart money list
- smart-money wallet
- 2-leg package, net credit
Sold5.1 BTC 76.5K call, 8 Nov 26
$386.4K notional
$148.0 premium
0xa0b4…e05ctwo-way trader8 Nov, 01:11 UTC12× this wallet's usual size
2 more details
- 52% win rate · +$227K this month · on the smart money list
- smart-money wallet

Where the open contracts sit

Open contracts by strike on the nearest expiry, and option premium bought minus sold by expiry over the last 24 hours.

3 charts

BTC, 9 Nov expiry

15 hours left

spot $75,945max pain $77,000wall $77,000

ETH, 9 Nov expiry

15 hours left

spot $2,237max pain $2,225wall $2,300

Net premium by expiry, 24h

← more soldmore bought →

Premium bought minus premium sold by the side that started each trade, last 24 hours, trades of $50K notional or more. These are option payments, not profit or loss.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 8 Nov, 16:38 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every minute; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page

Sources: Prices, open interest, volatility and trades come from Derive. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner only.
IV vs RV: Implied volatility (IV) is what at-the-money Derive options price in over the next 30 days. Realized volatility (RV) is how much the index actually moved over the last 30 complete days, annualised. IV below 0.85× RV: options cheap. Above 1.25×: expensive.
Smart money: The top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5K and traded in the last two weeks, market makers removed. “Smart long $1M” is their combined net delta in dollars.
Biggest trade: The largest Derive option execution, or same-second sweep, by underlying notional (size × index price) in the last 24 hours. Premium is what was paid for the options. A package leg is not the whole spread.
Max pain, wall: Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders would collect the least. The wall is the strike with the most open contracts within 5% of spot; prices often stick near it into expiry.
Trade ideas: Fixed rules on these numbers, not a person or a model. Payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Not advice.
Notable trades: Ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price against Deribit's mark, and package legs.
Alerts: Aggressor fills over $250K notional in options (with at least $2K premium) or $1M in perps, over $50K by a smart-money wallet, or over $10K by a wallet we follow by hand. Market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.

Track the traders making money on Derive

Derive markets

The ETH $5,000–$7,000 call spread

Smart money

Trade ideas

CC options look expensive: sell a strangle

6 smart-money wallets are short the ETH perp

ETH has a call wall at 2.3K for 9 Nov

VVV options look expensive: sell a strangle

6 smart-money wallets are long the ZEC perp

Notable trades

Sold1,050 × ETH call spread 5K/7K 26 Mar 27

Sold280 × 3-leg ETH package

Bought1,000 × HYPE strangle 85/74 25 Dec 26

Sold115.9 × 2-leg ETH package

Sold5.1 BTC 76.5K call, 8 Nov 26

Where the open contracts sit

BTC, 9 Nov expiry

ETH, 9 Nov expiry

Net premium by expiry, 24h