optionly

Track the traders making money on Derive

Smart money (10 wallets whose returns hold up) is net short $11.5M of ETH. Options look expensive on CC, VVV: priced for bigger moves than the market has made.

Updated

Derive markets

KoolKrypto bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 2027 $5,000/$7,000 call spreads for $898.2K and explained the trade on X. 201 other wallets now hold the same spread; 171 of them first traded on Derive after the post.

Holders' P&L now
-$2.2M
ETH must rise
+137%
in 137 days to break even
Spread worth
$5.90
KoolKrypto paid $38.22
All 202 holders and their entries
spot 2.1K5.0K7.0K
Profit per spread at expiry, at KoolKrypto's cost
Biggest Derive trade, 24h
$4.2M notional
Sold 2,000 ETH 2K put, 27 Nov 26 for $115K premium · by 0x6cb0…0efc
Smart money, net
Short $11.5M ETH
Combined delta of the 10 smart-money wallets; short $8.1M BTC.
Trade ideas, last 30 days
-61.6% average
Return on cost across 16 ideas; 13% made money.

Smart money

The five making the most over 30 days among the 10 wallets whose 90-day returns hold up (of 29 eligible), with at least 12 weeks of history.

How they are picked

Trade ideas

Fixed rules, not advice. Each card says what to trade, what it costs, and the number that triggered it.

Track record, last 30 days: 16 ideas, -61.6% average on cost, 13% made money

Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.

Max pain
9 ideas · -100.0% · 0% made money
Volatility
4 ideas · -37.7% · 0% made money
Open-interest wall
3 ideas · +21.6% · 67% made money

5 ideas

VolatilityCC

CC options look expensive: sell a strangle

Sell the 27 Nov 0.08 put and 0.11 call on Derive.

spot 0.090.000.080.11
Credit
$0.00411 (4.5%)
Max gain
$0.00411
Max loss
unlimited

Why now: Implied 202% vs realized 77%, ratio 2.63 (rule fires above 1.25).

The reasoning

CC options imply 202% annualised volatility for the next month, but the market has only moved at 77% over the last month (48% over the last week). At 2.63× realized, option sellers are being paid more than recent movement justifies.

Breakeven
$0.0759 – $0.114
Expiry
27 Nov · 18d
Smart money crowdingETH

6 smart-money wallets are short the ETH 2.4K call, 25 Dec 26

Sell the ETH 2.4K call, 25 Dec 26 on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 6 of them are on the same side of one contract, net -336.1 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Wallets
6 short
Net
-336.1 contracts
Trigger
≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 6 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

Max painETH

ETH max pain for 10 Nov is 2.3% above spot

Buy the 10 Nov 2.1K/2.2K call spread on Derive.

spot 2.1K2.1K2.2K
Cost
$17.6 (0.83%)
Max loss
$17.6
Max gain
$32.4 (1.8×)

Why now: Max pain $2,175 vs spot $2,127, gap 2.3% (rule fires beyond 1.5%).

The reasoning

Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders collectively lose the most. For 10 Nov it is $2,175, against spot at $2,127. Price often drifts toward it in the last days as hedges unwind; a tendency, not a rule.

Breakeven
$2,143
Expiry
10 Nov · 0.6d
VolatilityVVV

VVV options look expensive: sell a strangle

Sell the 27 Nov 15 put and 28 call on Derive.

spot 21.2315.0028.00
Credit
$0.52 (2.4%)
Max gain
$0.52
Max loss
unlimited

Why now: Implied 128% vs realized 98%, ratio 1.30 (rule fires above 1.25).

The reasoning

VVV options imply 128% annualised volatility for the next month, but the market has only moved at 98% over the last month (92% over the last week). At 1.30× realized, option sellers are being paid more than recent movement justifies.

Breakeven
$14.48 – $28.52
Expiry
27 Nov · 18d
Smart money crowdingHYPE

6 smart-money wallets are long the HYPE perp

Buy the HYPE perp on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 6 of them are on the same side of one contract, net +9,146.3 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Wallets
6 long
Net
+9,146.3 contracts
Trigger
≥5 wallets one side

Why now: 6 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

  • Cross-venue: no cross-venue mispricing worth trading right now. The same option on Derive and Deribit is quoted within fees of each other on every contract we can match, or the gap is under a dollar a contract. That is the normal state; edges appear briefly when one book lags.

    Arb scanner

Notable trades

The most unusual Derive option trades of the last 24 hours, and why each stands out.

Every large trade
  1. Sold3.5 × 2-leg BTC package

    $377.2K notional
    $1.5K net received
    0xa0b4…e05ctwo-way trader12× this wallet's usual size
    5 more details
    • 52% win rate · +$269K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
    • 8× this wallet's usual size
    • paid 31% over Deribit mark on the worst leg
    • 2-leg package, net credit
  2. Sold5 × 3-leg BTC package

    $377K notional
    $7.5K net received
    0xa0b4…e05ctwo-way trader12× this wallet's usual size
    4 more details
    • 52% win rate · +$269K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
    • paid 33% over Deribit mark on the worst leg
    • 3-leg package, net credit
  3. 0x5b61…0dc0wing buyerhit 10% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
    1 more detail
    • 2-leg package, net debit
  4. 0x5b61…0dc0wing buyerhit 9% under Deribit mark on the worst leg
    1 more detail
    • 2-leg package, net debit
  5. Sold1.6 × 2-leg BTC package

    $351.2K notional
    $10.5K net received
    0xb85e…0700two-way trader4× this wallet's usual size
    3 more details
    • 58% win rate · +$746K this month · on the smart money list
    • smart-money wallet
    • 2-leg package, net credit

By notional traded in the last 24 hours.

Leaderboard

Go deeper

Each page answers one question.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 9 Nov, 16:49 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every minute; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page
Sources
Prices, open interest, volatility and trades come from Derive. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner only.
IV vs RV
Implied volatility (IV) is what at-the-money Derive options price in over the next 30 days. Realized volatility (RV) is how much the index actually moved over the last 30 complete days, annualised. IV below 0.85× RV: options cheap. Above 1.25×: expensive.
Smart money
The top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5K and traded in the last two weeks, market makers removed. “Smart long $1M” is their combined net delta in dollars.
Biggest trade
The largest Derive option execution, or same-second sweep, by underlying notional (size × index price) in the last 24 hours. Premium is what was paid for the options. A package leg is not the whole spread.
Max pain, wall
Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders would collect the least. The wall is the strike with the most open contracts within 5% of spot; prices often stick near it into expiry.
Trade ideas
Fixed rules on these numbers, not a person or a model. Payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Not advice.
Notable trades
Ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price against Deribit's mark, and package legs.
Alerts
Aggressor fills over $250K notional in options (with at least $2K premium) or $1M in perps, over $50K by a smart-money wallet, or over $10K by a wallet we follow by hand. Market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.