DeriveDeribit
Trade on DeriveBTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and HYPE options are priced for less movement than the market has actually delivered this month. The steadiest traders on the exchange are net long $4.4M of ETH delta. Updated 07:02 UTC; refreshes every five minutes.
Track record: every idea is recorded when it fires and marked to market; results show here once five or more have run for a day (tracking since 2026-09-12).
Sell 1× HYPE 60 call, 25 Sep 26.
KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, collected $485k for 25,000 of them on Derive by RFQ (sell HYPE 60 call, 25 Sep 26) with HYPE at $79.27. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.
Rule: Followed wallet traded $1.98M notional, 2026-09-13 00:39 UTC.
Buy the 25 Sep 1.35 straddle on Deribit.
XRP has moved at 90% annualised over the last month (42% over the last week), but options are only pricing 53%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.
Rule: Implied 53% vs realized 90%, ratio 0.59 (rule fires below 0.85).
Sell the 14 Sep 77k straddle on Derive.
$28.27M of open interest sits at 77k (mostly puts), 0.2% below spot, expiring in 1.0 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.
Rule: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 366 contracts.
Buy the bull call spread ETH 5k/7k 26 Mar 27 on Derive.
KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, paid $470k for 10,000 of them on Derive by RFQ (buy ETH 5k call, 26 Mar 27, sell ETH 7k call, 26 Mar 27) with ETH at $2,613. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.
Rule: Followed wallet traded $52.27M notional, 2026-09-11 14:21 UTC.
Buy the 25 Sep 2.5k straddle on Deribit.
ETH has moved at 70% annualised over the last month (29% over the last week), but options are only pricing 51%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.
Rule: Implied 51% vs realized 70%, ratio 0.72 (rule fires below 0.85).
The same option on Derive and Deribit is quoted within fees of each other on every contract we can match, or the gap is under a dollar a contract. That is the normal state; edges appear briefly when one book lags. Arb scanner.
Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the live chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; the bar under each asset is their net delta as a share of their gross book. The wall is the strike with the most open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.