KoolKrypto bought 23,500 spreads for $898.2K, posted it on X, and 162 wallets followed. (@koolkrypto223) bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 5000/7000 call spreads for $898.2K and said so on X. 162 other wallets hold matching legs; 132 first appear in our fill history on or after the post.

ETH needs: +86% in 171d
Positions: 51,045 · $1.6M
Spread now: $32.10 vs $38.22

Every entry →

Biggest Derive print, 24h

$3.8M notionalSold 1,400 ETH 5.5k call, 26 Mar 27 · $39K premium · 0xcaee…87ce

Smart money, net

long $20.4MHYPE delta · long $3.2M BTC

Ideas, last 30 days

-11.6%on cost · 337 ideas · 44% profitable

Trade ideas

rule-based, not advice; each card shows what triggered it

Track record, last 30 days: 337 ideas, average -11.6% on cost, 44% profitable

Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.

Pin risk: 148 ideas · -39.1% · 26% profitable
Vol mispricing: 97 ideas · -17.7% · 45% profitable
Gamma wall: 66 ideas · +35.1% · 80% profitable
Followed wallet: 26 ideas · +49.1% · 46% profitable

6 ideas

Vol mispricingPUMP

PUMP options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $0 (16.7%)
Max loss: $0
Breakeven: $0.01 / $0.01

Why this fires

Move: ±16.7%
Expiry: 16 Oct · 10d
Trigger: IV 104% vs RV 193%

Buy the 16 Oct 0.0065 straddle on Derive.

PUMP has moved at 193% annualised over the last month (202% over the last week), but options are only pricing 104%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 104% vs realized 193%, ratio 0.54 (rule fires below 0.85).

PUMP 16OCT26 chain →

Gamma wallXAUT

XAUT has a put wall at 4.1k for 9 Oct

Credit: $9.7 (0.23%)
Max gain: $9.7
Max loss: unlimited

Why this fires

Breakeven: $4,092
Expiry: 9 Oct · 3.4d
Trigger: $2.08M OI at 4.1k, 1.4% below

Sell the 9 Oct 4.1k put on Derive.

$2.08M of open interest sits at 4.1k (mostly puts), 1.4% below spot, expiring in 3.4 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Rule: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 500 contracts.

XAUT 9OCT26 chain →

Pin riskZEC

ZEC max pain for 9 Oct is 7.3% above spot

Cost: $48.7 (3.60%)
Max loss: $48.7
Max gain: $51.3 (1.1×)

Why this fires

Breakeven: $1,399
Expiry: 9 Oct · 3.4d
Trigger: max pain $1,450 vs $1,352

Buy the 9 Oct 1.4k/1.4k call spread on Derive.

Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders collectively lose the most. For 9 Oct it is $1,450, against spot at $1,352. Price often drifts toward it in the last days as hedges unwind; a tendency, not a rule.

Rule: Max pain $1,450 vs spot $1,352, gap 7.3% (rule fires beyond 1.5%).

ZEC 9OCT26 chain →

Vol mispricingVVV

VVV options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $4.61 (16.2%)
Max loss: $4.61
Breakeven: $23.39 / $32.61

Why this fires

Move: ±16.2%
Expiry: 16 Oct · 10d
Trigger: IV 102% vs RV 133%

Buy the 16 Oct 28 straddle on Derive.

VVV has moved at 133% annualised over the last month (103% over the last week), but options are only pricing 102%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 102% vs realized 133%, ratio 0.76 (rule fires below 0.85).

VVV 16OCT26 chain →

Vol mispricingZEC

ZEC options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $236.5 (17.5%)
Max loss: $236.5
Breakeven: $1,114 / $1,587

Why this fires

Move: ±17.5%
Expiry: 16 Oct · 10d
Trigger: IV 126% vs RV 149%

Buy the 16 Oct 1.4k straddle on Derive.

ZEC has moved at 149% annualised over the last month (78% over the last week), but options are only pricing 126%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 126% vs realized 149%, ratio 0.84 (rule fires below 0.85).

ZEC 16OCT26 chain →

Cross-venueBTC

The same contract is 14 bps cheaper on Derive than on Deribit

Edge: $119.57 (13.6 bps)
Size: 5 · $597.87
Risk: leg risk

Why this fires

Trigger: >5 bps after fees

Buy on Derive at $12,946, sell on Deribit at $13,119.

The BTC 95k put, 26 Mar 27 is offered at $12,946 on Derive and bid at $13,119 on Deribit. After both venues' fees that is $119.57 per contract of locked-in edge.

Rule: 13.6 bps of forward after fees (rule fires above 5 bps).

Arb scanner →

Notable trades

Derive · Last 24h · Ranked by unusual activity

Full tape

Bought10,000 HYPE 97.5 call, 16 Oct 26
$913.9K
$17.5K premium
0x31bd…34aaupside buyer5 Oct, 06:334× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 16% win rate · +$19k this month · on the smart money list
- smart-money wallet
Bought14,000,000 × bull put spread PUMP 0.005/0.0055 27 Nov 26
$91.5K
$1.7K net paid
0x70bc…d605vol buyer5 Oct, 05:16smart-money wallet
2 more
- 50% win rate · +$9k this month · on the smart money list
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought5 × bull call spread BTC 100k/120k 25 Dec 26
$432K
$8.6K net paid
0xc640…93fcwing buyer4 Oct, 22:543× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 22% win rate · -$32k this month
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought100 × bull call spread ETH 4k/5k 25 Dec 26
$270.6K
$2.2K net paid
mbaril010.ethspread trader5 Oct, 04:4910× this wallet's usual size
1 more
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought50 × bull call spread ETH 4k/6k 25 Jun 27
$136.3K
$7.5K net paid
0x53e2…dd5ewing buyer5 Oct, 07:033× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 45% win rate · -$2k this month
- 2-leg package, net debit

Open interest and flow

nearest expiry by strike · net premium by expiry, 24h

BTC 6OCT260.4 days

spot $85,895 max pain $85,500 wall $87,000

ETH 6OCT260.4 days

spot $2,715 max pain $2,725 wall $2,750

← Net soldNet bought →

Premium bought minus premium sold, measured from the side initiating each trade. These are option payments, not profit or loss. Last 24 hours; trades of at least $50k notional.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 5 Oct, 21:43 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every minute; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page

Market prices, open interest, volatility signals and flow on this page come from Derive. The biggest print is the largest contract execution or same-second sweep by underlying notional, before notable-trade ranking; a package leg is not the whole spread. Premium is the amount paid for the option. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner. Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the Derive chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; "smart long" on an asset chip is their net delta. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.