DeriveDeribit
Trade on DeriveOptions on BTC, ETH, HYPE are pricing less movement than the market delivered this month. The steadiest traders on the exchange are net long $4.3M of ETH delta. Refreshed every five minutes, updated 03:11 UTC.
KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, paid $781k for 20,000 of these on Derive via RFQ (buy ETH 5k call, 26 Mar 27, sell ETH 7k call, 26 Mar 27) with ETH at $2,613. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.
Rule: Followed wallet traded $100.64M notional, 2026-09-11 14:21 UTC.
BTC has moved at 48% annualised over the last month (22% over the last week) but options are only pricing 35%. When realized runs above implied, buying options and letting the market move pays.
Rule: Implied 35% vs realized 48%, ratio 0.74 (rule fires below 0.85).
$17.19M of open interest sits at 77.5k (mostly puts), 0.1% above spot, expiring in 1.2 days. Dealers hedging that strike tend to sell into it from below and buy into it from above, which dampens moves around it into expiry.
Rule: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 222 contracts.
Max pain is the price at which option holders collectively lose the most at expiry. For 13 Sep it is $81 against spot $79.29. Prices often drift toward it in the final days as hedges unwind, though it is a tendency, not a law.
Rule: Max pain $81 vs spot $79.29, gap 2.2% (rule fires beyond 1.5%).
KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, paid $402k for 300 of these on Derive via RFQ (buy BTC 85k call, 30 Oct 26, sell BTC 95k call, 30 Oct 26) with BTC at $77,369. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.
Rule: Followed wallet traded $46.29M notional, 2026-09-10 14:46 UTC.
The same option on Derive and Deribit is quoted within fees of each other on every contract we can match, or the gap is under a dollar a contract. That is the normal state; edges appear briefly when one book lags. Arb scanner.
Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the live chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; the bar under each asset is their net delta as a share of their gross book. The wall is the strike with the most open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.