KoolKrypto bought 23,500 spreads for $898.2K, posted it on X, and 157 wallets followed. (@koolkrypto223) bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 5000/7000 call spreads for $898.2K and said so on X. 157 other wallets hold matching legs; 126 first appear in our fill history on or after the post.

ETH needs: +88% in 178d
Positions: 50,018 · $1.6M
Spread now: $35.00 vs $38.22

Every entry →

Biggest Derive print, 24h

$5.4M notionalBought 2,000 ETH 2.8k call, 2 Oct 26 · $31K premium · 0x96b9…a701

Smart money, net

long $20.8MHYPE delta · long $10.4M ETH

Ideas, last 30 days

-9.9%on cost · 241 ideas · 44% profitable

Trade ideas

rule-based, not advice; each card shows what triggered it

Track record, last 30 days: 241 ideas, average -9.9% on cost, 44% profitable

Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.

Pin risk: 114 ideas · -43.4% · 26% profitable
Gamma wall: 55 ideas · +32.0% · 80% profitable
Vol mispricing: 53 ideas · -9.5% · 38% profitable
Followed wallet: 19 ideas · +69.0% · 68% profitable

6 ideas

Followed walletBTC

@koolkrypto223

KoolKrypto sold the short BTC 85k call, 30 Oct 26

They paid: $3,412 · $171k for 50
Now: $2,838 (mark $2,784)
Their P&L: +$31k

Why this fires

Breakeven: $87,865
Best case: n/a
Traded: 09-28 00:31 · $4.23M

Sell 1× BTC 85k call, 30 Oct 26.

KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, collected $171k for 50 of them on Derive by RFQ (sell BTC 85k call, 30 Oct 26) with BTC at $84,590. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.

Rule: Followed wallet traded $4.23M notional, 2026-09-28 00:31 UTC.

KoolKrypto's wallet →

Vol mispricingLIT

LIT options look expensive: sell a strangle

Credit: $0.13 (2.8%)
Max gain: $0.13
Max loss: unlimited

Why this fires

Breakeven: $3.37 – $5.53
Expiry: 9 Oct · 10d
Trigger: IV 113% vs RV 83%

Sell the 9 Oct 3.5 put and 5.4 call on Derive.

LIT options imply 113% annualised volatility for the next month, but the market has only moved at 83% over the last month (86% over the last week). At 1.36× realized, option sellers are being paid more than recent movement justifies.

Rule: Implied 113% vs realized 83%, ratio 1.36 (rule fires above 1.25).

LIT 9OCT26 chain →

Crowded tradeHYPE

5 smart-money wallets are short the HYPE perp

Wallets: 5 short
Net: -35,570.6 contracts
Trigger: ≥5 wallets one side

Why this fires

Sell the HYPE perp on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 5 of them are on the same side of one contract, net -35,570.6 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Rule: 5 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

Smart money book →

Gamma wallZEC

ZEC has a call wall at 1.5k for 2 Oct

Credit: $44.6 (3.05%)
Max gain: $44.6
Max loss: unlimited

Why this fires

Breakeven: $1,545
Expiry: 2 Oct · 3.4d
Trigger: $1.09M OI at 1.5k, 2.7% above

Sell the 2 Oct 1.5k call on Derive.

$1.09M of open interest sits at 1.5k (mostly calls), 2.7% above spot, expiring in 3.4 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.

Rule: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 745 contracts.

ZEC 2OCT26 chain →

Pin riskBTC

BTC max pain for 29 Sep is 1.7% above spot

Cost: $266 (0.32%)
Max loss: $266
Max gain: $1,234 (4.6×)

Why this fires

Breakeven: $83,766
Expiry: 29 Sep · 0.4d
Trigger: max pain $85,000 vs $83,540

Buy the 29 Sep 83.5k/85k call spread on Derive.

Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders collectively lose the most. For 29 Sep it is $85,000, against spot at $83,540. Price often drifts toward it in the last days as hedges unwind; a tendency, not a rule.

Rule: Max pain $85,000 vs spot $83,540, gap 1.7% (rule fires beyond 1.5%).

BTC 29SEP26 chain →

Cross-venueBTC

The same contract is 19 bps cheaper on Derive than on Deribit

Edge: $162.6 (19.0 bps)
Size: 5 · $813.02
Risk: leg risk

Why this fires

Trigger: >5 bps after fees

Buy on Derive at $11,460, sell on Deribit at $11,674.

The BTC 90k put, 26 Mar 27 is offered at $11,460 on Derive and bid at $11,674 on Deribit. After both venues' fees that is $162.6 per contract of locked-in edge.

Rule: 19.0 bps of forward after fees (rule fires above 5 bps).

Arb scanner →

Notable trades

Derive · Last 24h · Ranked by unusual activity

Full tape

Bought2,000 ETH 2.8k call, 2 Oct 26
$5.4M
$30.8K premium
KoolKryptospread trader28 Sept, 17:3734× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 38% win rate · +$1.28M this month
- Followed wallet
Sold50 BTC 85k call, 30 Oct 26
$4.2M
$170.6K premium
KoolKryptospread trader28 Sept, 00:3127× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 38% win rate · +$1.28M this month
- Followed wallet
Bought120 × bull call spread ETH 3.5k/3.6k 25 Dec 26
$321.2K
$1.4K net paid
0xf6ce…7c84spread trader27 Sept, 22:2112× this wallet's usual size
1 more
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought10,000 HYPE 90 call, 9 Oct 26
$895.5K
$38.6K premium
0x31bd…34aaupside buyer28 Sept, 13:424× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 33% win rate · -$29k this month · on the smart money list
- smart-money wallet
Sold1.1 BTC 80k call, 2 Oct 26
$91.9K
$4.3K premium
0xd957…2ee9premium seller28 Sept, 09:1810× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 69% win rate · +$10k this month · on the smart money list
- smart-money wallet

Open interest and flow

nearest expiry by strike · net premium by expiry, 24h

BTC 29SEP260.4 days

spot $83,431 max pain $85,000 wall $80,000

ETH 29SEP260.4 days

spot $2,681 max pain $2,675 wall $2,550

← Net soldNet bought →

Premium bought minus premium sold, measured from the side initiating each trade. These are option payments, not profit or loss. Last 24 hours; trades of at least $50k notional.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 28 Sept, 21:31 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every minute; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page

Market prices, open interest, volatility signals and flow on this page come from Derive. The biggest print is the largest contract execution or same-second sweep by underlying notional, before notable-trade ranking; a package leg is not the whole spread. Premium is the amount paid for the option. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner. Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the Derive chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; "smart long" on an asset chip is their net delta. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.