KoolKrypto bought 23,500 spreads for $898.2K, posted it on X, and 158 wallets followed. (@koolkrypto223) bought 23,500 ETH 26 Mar 5000/7000 call spreads for $898.2K and said so on X. 158 other wallets hold matching legs; 128 first appear in our fill history on or after the post.

ETH needs: +88% in 176d
Positions: 50,764 · $1.6M
Spread now: $32.70 vs $38.22

Every entry →

Biggest Derive print, 24h

$3M notionalBought 1,100 ETH 3k call, 9 Oct 26 · $16K premium · 0x9aa2…0e36

Smart money, net

long $19.6MHYPE delta · long $7.4M BTC

Ideas, last 30 days

-13.0%on cost · 265 ideas · 44% profitable

Trade ideas

rule-based, not advice; each card shows what triggered it

Track record, last 30 days: 265 ideas, average -13.0% on cost, 44% profitable

Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.

Pin risk: 122 ideas · -36.8% · 30% profitable
Vol mispricing: 65 ideas · -34.5% · 29% profitable
Gamma wall: 58 ideas · +33.3% · 81% profitable
Followed wallet: 20 ideas · +67.8% · 70% profitable

5 ideas

Vol mispricingBTC

BTC options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $3,301 (3.9%)
Max loss: $3,301
Breakeven: $80,699 / $87,301

Why this fires

Move: ±3.9%
Expiry: 9 Oct · 8d
Trigger: IV 33% vs RV 41%

Buy the 9 Oct 84k straddle on Derive.

BTC has moved at 41% annualised over the last month (10% over the last week), but options are only pricing 33%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 33% vs realized 41%, ratio 0.80 (rule fires below 0.85).

BTC 9OCT26 chain →

Crowded tradeHYPE

5 smart-money wallets are short the HYPE perp

Wallets: 5 short
Net: -35,182.2 contracts
Trigger: ≥5 wallets one side

Why this fires

Sell the HYPE perp on Derive, in small size.

The steadiest traders on Derive rarely agree. Here 5 of them are on the same side of one contract, net -35,182.2 contracts. Their edge persists only weakly from month to month, so treat this as a shortlist, not something to copy blindly.

Rule: 5 wallets same side (rule fires at 5 or more).

Smart money book →

Vol mispricingZEC

ZEC options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $228.7 (16.0%)
Max loss: $228.7
Breakeven: $1,221 / $1,679

Why this fires

Move: ±16.0%
Expiry: 9 Oct · 8d
Trigger: IV 126% vs RV 156%

Buy the 9 Oct 1.4k straddle on Derive.

ZEC has moved at 156% annualised over the last month (99% over the last week), but options are only pricing 126%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 126% vs realized 156%, ratio 0.81 (rule fires below 0.85).

ZEC 9OCT26 chain →

Vol mispricingSOL

SOL options look cheap: buy a straddle

Cost: $9.3 (7.9%)
Max loss: $9.3
Breakeven: $110.7 / $129.3

Why this fires

Move: ±7.9%
Expiry: 9 Oct · 8d
Trigger: IV 53% vs RV 62%

Buy the 9 Oct 120 straddle on Derive.

SOL has moved at 62% annualised over the last month (42% over the last week), but options are only pricing 53%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.

Rule: Implied 53% vs realized 62%, ratio 0.85 (rule fires below 0.85).

SOL 9OCT26 chain →

Cross-venueBTC

The same contract is 71 bps cheaper on Derive than on Deribit

Edge: $609.97 (71.1 bps)
Size: 1.168 · $712.22
Risk: leg risk

Why this fires

Trigger: >5 bps after fees

Buy on Derive at $83,409, sell on Deribit at $84,070.

The BTC 170k put, 26 Mar 27 is offered at $83,409 on Derive and bid at $84,070 on Deribit. After both venues' fees that is $609.97 per contract of locked-in edge.

Rule: 71.1 bps of forward after fees (rule fires above 5 bps).

Arb scanner →

Notable trades

Derive · Last 24h · Ranked by unusual activity

Full tape

Bought400 × bull call spread ETH 5k/7k 26 Mar 27
$1.1M
$14.4K net paid
0xc640…93fcwing buyer30 Sept, 12:408× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 22% win rate · -$30k this month
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought250 × bull call spread ETH 4.5k/6k 24 Sep 27
$672.4K
$29.3K net paid
0xc640…93fcwing buyer30 Sept, 10:115× this wallet's usual size
2 more
- 22% win rate · -$30k this month
- 2-leg package, net debit
Bought3.6 × 13-leg BTC package
$600.3K
$137.2K net paid
0xe1dc…69b7market maker30 Sept, 12:306× this wallet's usual size
4 more
- 46% win rate · +$110k this month
- 9× this wallet's usual size
- 13× this wallet's usual size
- 13-leg package, net debit
Bought1,100 ETH 3k call, 9 Oct 26
$3M
$16.4K premium
0x9aa2…0e36wing buyer30 Sept, 12:5611× this wallet's usual size
1 more
- 38% win rate · -$31k this month
Bought3,500 HYPE 110 call, 30 Oct 26
$300.5K
$4.3K premium
0x56d3…4f83two-way trader30 Sept, 08:3628% from spot
2 more
- 41% win rate · -$12k this month
- 58× this wallet's usual size

Open interest and flow

nearest expiry by strike · net premium by expiry, 24h

BTC 1OCT260.5 days

spot $83,650 max pain $84,000 wall $82,000

ETH 1OCT260.5 days

spot $2,681 max pain $2,675 wall $2,725

← Net soldNet bought →

Premium bought minus premium sold, measured from the side initiating each trade. These are option payments, not profit or loss. Last 24 hours; trades of at least $50k notional.

Data timing

This page was calculated at 30 Sept, 21:03 UTC and checks for updates every 5 minutes while visible. Scheduled updates: quotes every minute; trade sync and alerts every 5 minutes; wallet statistics, cohorts and idea results every 15 minutes; wallet performance hourly.

Individual sources can be older than the page, and a check can return the same cached page while a newer version is prepared. Automatic checks pause in hidden tabs and catch up when you return.

Calculations and trade ideas use fixed rules and templates, not AI.

How to read this page

Market prices, open interest, volatility signals and flow on this page come from Derive. The biggest print is the largest contract execution or same-second sweep by underlying notional, before notable-trade ranking; a package leg is not the whole spread. Premium is the amount paid for the option. Deribit supplies comparison prices and the cross-venue scanner. Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the Derive chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; "smart long" on an asset chip is their net delta. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.