DeriveDeribit
These are the 40 Derive traders with the best track record we can measure, out of 393 who qualify. "Best" here means they made money steadily over the last 90 days, not that they had one big win. As a group they are currently betting on ETH going up, to the tune of $5M, and they are selling volatility.
1. We rebuild their whole book. Every trade on Derive is public. We replay each wallet's trades day by day, so we know what they held, what they paid, and what it is worth now. Profit counts whether they have closed the trade or are still sitting in it.
2. We score consistency, not size. A wallet that makes a little most weeks with small dips ranks above one that made more with a wild ride. The number for that is the Sortino ratio: average daily profit divided by how bad the losing days were. Higher is steadier. We cap it so tiny accounts with two lucky days can't top the list.
3. We check whether it lasts. We rank everyone on the first half of the 90 days and then look at what they did in the second half. If a wallet was near the top early and kept making money later, it gets a bonus and a "yes" under Persist.
4. We throw out market makers. Some wallets quote both sides of the same contract within seconds. Their profit is a fee for providing liquidity, not a view on the market, so they are excluded.
5. We keep the top 10%. Then we add up what they hold, to see where the best traders on the exchange are positioned right now.
Verdict
some skill
How much early rank predicts later profit
0.14
Top 10% still profitable later
44%
Everyone profitable later
35%
Plain reading: of the wallets that looked best in the first half, 44% went on to make money in the second half, compared with 35% of all wallets. The prediction score runs from 0 (no relationship) to 1 (early rank perfectly predicts later profit); 0.14 means past results help a little, so treat this list as a shortlist, not a copy button. 1410 wallets tested, split at 2026-07-25, recomputed hourly.
| Wallet | Style | Score | Sortino | 90d PnL | Return on gross | Max DD | + weeks | Days | Persist | Follow 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x004b…f972 | mixed retail top 1% of 227 | 12.00 | 11.7 | $87K | 2.9% | $16K | 5/13 | 65 | yes | -$409 (-0.02%) |
| 0x75d2…ef41 | mixed retail top 1% of 227 | 12.00 | 16.3 | $307K | 6.0% | $38K | 10/16 | 48 | yes | -$281 (-0.06%) |
| 0x89a0…3fbc | mixed retail top 1% of 227 | 12.00 | 12.8 | $6K | 1.1% | $895 | 15/16 | 75 | yes | no fills |
| 0x8f45…f6ae | rfq block top 1% of 92 | 12.00 | 19.4 | $30K | 3.6% | $8K | 9/16 | 41 | yes | -$6 (-0.08%) |
| 0xd339…a77e | premium seller top 1% of 25 | 12.00 | 9.9 | $52K | 7.4% | $18K | 12/16 | 87 | yes | no fills |
| 0xbc02…bd4d | mixed retail top 1% of 227 | 10.73 | 9.3 | $25K | 4.7% | $6K | 7/16 | 24 | yes | no fills |
| 0xd5af…1b09 | rfq block top 1% of 92 | 10.24 | 6.8 | $56K | 4.4% | $25K | 9/14 | 70 | yes | $626 (0.16%) |
| 0xa72a…8dd7 | hedger top 1% of 26 | 10.23 | 6.8 | $73K | 9.2% | $19K | 9/16 | 91 | yes | no fills |
| 0x283f…3f76 | mixed retail top 2% of 227 | 9.67 | 12.8 | $3K | 1.8% | $517 | 10/12 | 28 | yes | no fills |
| 0xafac…c072 | mixed retail top 2% of 227 | 9.47 | 10.1 | $916 | 0.4% | $210 | 5/10 | 19 | yes | no fills |
| 0x0494…791f | mixed retail top 3% of 227 | 9.23 | 12.5 | $7K | 4.4% | $1K | 7/14 | 74 | yes | no fills |
| 0x302c…e7ef | mixed retail top 3% of 227 | 8.17 | 6.5 | $3K | 1.4% | $1K | 5/16 | 25 | yes | no fills |
| 0x142b…fa52 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 9.5 | $11K | 0.4% | $4K | 7/16 | 86 | – | no fills |
| 0x1680…5ab4 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 15.1 | $215K | 8.3% | $29K | 6/10 | 51 | – | no fills |
| 0x2a54…2969 | rfq block top 2% of 92 | 8.00 | 21.8 | $52K | 16.9% | $11K | 4/8 | 30 | – | no fills |
| 0x357e…b5fe | wing buyer top 1% of 16 | 8.00 | 21.4 | $73K | 4.0% | $8K | 5/7 | 35 | – | -$7K (-0.22%) |
| 0x39a5…379e | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 14.4 | $3K | 0.0% | $770 | 3/12 | 68 | – | -$0 (-0.00%) |
| 0x7b0f…cd89 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 82.7 | $32K | 6.7% | $1K | 6/8 | 38 | – | -$545 (-0.07%) |
| 0x88a8…01d6 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 19.2 | $52K | 0.3% | $11K | 3/15 | 51 | – | -$1K (-0.01%) |
| 0xa58f…9f98 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 13.1 | $19K | 3.4% | $4K | 5/12 | 42 | – | -$68 (-0.19%) |
| 0xd699…5a26 | wing buyer top 1% of 16 | 8.00 | 54.9 | $40K | 11.3% | $2K | 7/15 | 65 | – | $79 (0.02%) |
| 0xdfeb…43c5 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 9.9 | $24K | 7.3% | $6K | 7/16 | 70 | – | no fills |
| 0xe5d8…f9d7 | mixed retail top 4% of 227 | 8.00 | 11.7 | $19K | 6.6% | $3K | 6/8 | 30 | – | $1K (2.97%) |
| 0xa87c…a037 | mixed retail top 7% of 227 | 7.89 | 11.0 | $3K | 2.7% | $555 | 8/15 | 71 | yes | $31 (0.05%) |
| 0xcec7…15dc | mixed retail top 7% of 227 | 7.52 | 8.0 | $18K | 7.4% | $7K | 4/12 | 27 | – | no fills |
| 0x4460…9099 | premium seller top 4% of 25 | 7.25 | 15.3 | $15K | 7.3% | $4K | 9/15 | 61 | – | no fills |
| 0xa8c1…8840 | mixed retail top 8% of 227 | 7.16 | 10.5 | $26K | 2.3% | $9K | 3/8 | 24 | – | no fills |
| 0xa0ee…5c54 | mixed retail top 8% of 227 | 7.16 | 9.2 | $16K | 6.2% | $3K | 8/15 | 24 | – | no fills |
| 0x3107…ffaa | mixed retail top 9% of 227 | 7.04 | 7.2 | $3K | 1.3% | $1K | 9/15 | 52 | – | no fills |
| 0x1b71…7856 | mixed retail top 9% of 227 | 7.00 | 13.1 | $27K | 6.6% | $4K | 6/7 | 23 | – | no fills |
| 0xc640…93fc | mixed retail top 10% of 227 | 6.92 | 6.9 | $23K | 9.2% | $9K | 5/14 | 65 | – | -$1K (-0.17%) |
| 0x56d3…4f83 | hedger top 4% of 26 | 6.92 | 7.9 | $171K | 1.1% | $97K | 3/5 | 23 | – | -$12K (-0.09%) |
| 0xc929…d612 | mixed retail top 10% of 227 | 6.87 | 6.9 | $16K | 1.3% | $4K | 10/16 | 76 | – | -$470 (-1.11%) |
| 0x3eec…567a | mixed retail top 11% of 227 | 6.87 | 7.8 | $304 | 0.4% | $64 | 6/15 | 40 | yes | no fills |
| 0x3378…72ac | mixed retail top 11% of 227 | 6.77 | 14.7 | $38K | 15.5% | $7K | 5/9 | 22 | – | no fills |
| 0x6681…21bd | mixed retail top 11% of 227 | 6.69 | 32.0 | $3K | 0.8% | $596 | 3/5 | 21 | – | -$259 (-0.23%) |
| 0x8668…0b77 | rfq block top 3% of 92 | 6.54 | 4.4 | $38K | 3.2% | $12K | 6/16 | 91 | yes | $41 (0.01%) |
| 0x513d…5739 | perp trader top 1% of 5 | 6.53 | 6.5 | $276K | 40.6% | $82K | 7/16 | 91 | – | $112 (1.20%) |
| 0xe492…d08c | rfq block top 4% of 92 | 6.52 | 4.3 | $529K | 3.2% | $208K | 8/16 | 90 | yes | -$671 (-0.06%) |
| 0xeccb…7932 | mixed retail top 12% of 227 | 6.26 | 4.4 | $1K | 0.6% | $1K | 5/14 | 35 | yes | -$142 (-0.95%) |
| Asset | Delta $ | Vega $/pt | Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | $5M | -$10K | $44M |
| HYPE | $1M | -$2K | $22M |
| BTC | $980K | -$2K | $16M |
| SOL | -$31K | $213 | $425K |
| XRP | $2K | $1 | $7K |
| Expiry | Delta $ | Vega $/pt | Wallets | Largest nets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE 25DEC26 | $1M | -$835 | 5 | 25/12 50-P +30000.0 · 25/12 58-P -30000.0 · 25/12 100-C -21483.0 |
| ETH 25JUN27 | -$1M | -$25K | 1 | 25/06 3200-C -2467.4 · 25/06 3000-C -600.0 · 25/06 2000-C +500.0 |
| ETH 25DEC26 | $3M | $8K | 9 | 25/12 2500-C +1020.0 · 25/12 3000-P -525.0 · 25/12 2000-P +400.0 |
| ETH 26MAR27 | $2M | $13K | 2 | 26/03 2800-C +1100.0 · 26/03 2000-P +430.0 · 26/03 3500-P -365.0 |
| ETH 25SEP26 | $839K | -$2K | 14 | 25/09 2200-P -400.0 · 25/09 2700-C -250.0 · 25/09 2200-C +245.0 |
| BTC 25SEP26 | $2M | $192 | 11 | 25/09 60000-P -10.9 · 25/09 55000-C +9.0 · 25/09 60000-C +7.0 |
| HYPE 26MAR27 | $202K | -$417 | 3 | 26/03 110-C +15000.0 · 26/03 130-C -15000.0 · 26/03 65-P -6250.0 |
| ETH 30OCT26 | -$285K | -$4K | 5 | 30/10 2400-P -309.0 · 30/10 2800-C -250.0 · 30/10 2300-C -125.0 |
| HYPE 30OCT26 | $310K | -$356 | 1 | 30/10 70-P -15000.0 · 30/10 55-P +15000.0 · 30/10 90-C +3465.0 |
| HYPE 25SEP26 | $219K | -$255 | 13 | 25/09 50-P +7990.0 · 25/09 34-P +4500.0 · 25/09 65-P -3000.0 |
| BTC 11SEP26 | -$95K | $131 | 3 | 11/09 65000-P +20.0 · 11/09 77000-P +5.0 · 11/09 70000-P +3.0 |
| ETH 11SEP26 | -$748K | -$313 | 3 | 11/09 3200-C +400.0 · 11/09 2400-C -300.0 · 11/09 2500-C -132.0 |
| Time | Wallet | Instrument | Side | Size | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 03:50 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.06 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:47 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.97 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:44 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.05 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:42 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.05 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:39 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.00 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:36 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.96 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:33 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.03 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:30 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.99 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:28 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.91 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:25 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.10 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:22 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.02 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:21 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.96 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:21 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $83.98 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:16 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.00 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:15 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.00 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:15 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.00 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:10 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.12 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:04 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.17 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:04 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.17 | $42 |
| 09-08 03:01 | 0x88a8…01d6 | ETH-20260910-2900-C | buy | 100 | $0.20 | $249K |
| 09-08 03:00 | 0x88a8…01d6 | ETH-20260910-2900-C | buy | 100 | $0.20 | $248K |
| 09-08 03:00 | 0x88a8…01d6 | ETH-20260910-2800-C | buy | 70 | $0.60 | $174K |
| 09-08 03:00 | 0x88a8…01d6 | ETH-20260910-2900-C | buy | 100 | $0.20 | $248K |
| 09-08 02:59 | 0x88a8…01d6 | ETH-20260910-2800-C | buy | 30 | $0.50 | $75K |
| 09-08 02:58 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.12 | $42 |
| 09-08 02:55 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.41 | $42 |
| 09-08 02:52 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.45 | $42 |
| 09-08 02:49 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.62 | $42 |
| 09-08 02:46 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.51 | $42 |
| 09-08 02:43 | 0x56d3…4f83 | HYPE-PERP | buy | 0.5 | $84.56 | $42 |